Farmers’ Protest could hurt BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Will INDIA bloc seize it?

A recurrence of the Farmers’ Protest, which took place in Delhi three years ago, is likely to take place. At that time, two hundred unions staged a demonstration against the government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and initiated the Dilli Chalo march. While farmers are marching on foot and in tractors towards the national capital, Delhi has been fortified. This is happening just a few months before the Lok Sabha Elections taking place in 2024.

During a rally that took place three years ago, farmers from the states of Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh stood at the border of Tikri for several months, enduring the harsh cold, until Prime Minister Narendra Modi decided to rescind the three farm laws. In addition to this, they urged that the Minimum Support Price (MSP) be imposed with absolute certainty.

Farmers' Protest could hurt BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Will INDIA bloc seize it
Farmers’ Protest could hurt BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Will INDIA bloc seize it

The demonstration that escalated into violence when it attempted to enter Delhi caused a significant uproar on January 26, 2021, when a portion of the tractor rally, also known as the Chakka Jam, veered off course and headed in the direction of the Red Fort.

In an address to the nation that he delivered on November 19, 2021, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made the announcement that the Central Government had made the decision to repeal the three agriculture laws that had been passed by the Parliament the previous year.

However, a repeated farmers’ protest, which is the only one that is thought to have been able to stand up to the administration of Prime Minister Modi, would be a test of governance for both the government of Modi and the opposition INDIA alliance, immediately before the Lok Sabha Elections in 2024.

What impact could the Farmers’ Protest have on the BJP, which is led by Prime Minister Modi?

Despite the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is searching for a third consecutive victory in the seat of government, which would be comparable to the accomplishment of Jawaharlal Nehru, the protest by farmers is a cause for concern because it is so soon to the Lok Sabha Elections in 2024 for the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP).

In spite of the fact that the saffron party won three Assembly seats in December 2023, which may have boosted their confidence, there is still a possibility that they will be concerned by the farmers’ protest.

Farmers’ Protest could hurt BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Will INDIA bloc seize it?

Farmers' Protest could hurt BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Will INDIA bloc seize it

Notable among the farmers who are participating in the demonstrations are those who come from politically significant states such as Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh, which are all located in the Hindi heartland. In addition to them, farmers from Tamil Nadu have also joined. Despite the ‘Sengol’ effort, Prime Minister Modi has not been able to make inroads in Tamil Nadu, which is a state. This indicates that the farmers’ protest puts Prime Minister Modi’s efforts to impress India’s southern states as well as his strong hold over the Hindi heartland in jeopardy.

Punjab is represented in the Lok Sabha by thirteen members. In the event that the farmers’ demonstration becomes more intense, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) would suffer a loss of face, which would result in the Punjab vote bank being lost to either the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) or the Congress.

There were rumors that the Shiromani Akali Dal was in negotiations with the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) for a possible return to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), however Sukhbir Singh Badal, the head of the Shiromani Akali Dal, refuted these rumors. According to the figures provided by the Election Commission, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) received 9.73 percent of the vote in the state in 2019, although it only won two seats.

In the event that the situation escalates, the BJP would also suffer a loss in Haryana. By the end of 2019, the BJP had secured all ten seats in the state’s Lok Sabha. On the other hand, the state has also witnessed a large increase in the number of farmers who participated in the demonstration in the years 2020 and 2024.

Participation from Uttar Pradesh, which has eighty representatives in the Lok Sabha, has also been seen in the demonstrations that have been held by farmers. In the general elections held in 2019, the BJP has won 62 seats, compared to 72 seats in 2014.

For the INDIA bloc, why is the Farmers’ Protest such a vital event?

There is a possibility that the Farmers’ Protest will be the Achilles heel for the BJP; yet, in order for the opposition to continue existing, the INDIA bloc must become the Trojan prince Paris.

The Farmers’ Protest represents the final opportunity for the INDIA bloc to have any kind of influence before the 97 crore voters cast their votes in the Lok Sabha elections.

The INDIA bloc is facing an existential crisis as a result of the departures of the JD(U) led by Nitish Kumar and the RLD. In addition, the INDIA bloc is grappling with the announcements of its partners, such as Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal, regarding their individual plans for the Lok Sabha elections.

Farmers' Protest could hurt BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Will INDIA bloc seize it
During the protest by farmers, Rahul Gandhi, a member of the Congress party, took to social media platform X to criticize Prime Minister Modi.

Over the course of the past decade, Modi, who is known to “cultivate lies” around the clock, has only been dishonest with the farmers. Modi’s promise of doubling the income also made the farmers crave for the minimum support price (MSP).

Gandhi stated that as a consequence of inflation, farmers’ indebtedness increased by sixty percent since they were not receiving fair prices for their crops. As a consequence of this, almost thirty farmers sacrificed their lives every single day.

In spite of the fact that the BJP has completely obliterated the Congress in the Hindi heartland, the Congress is still seeking to make its presence known there. Only in Himachal Pradesh does the grand old party hold the position of power.

On the other hand, the Congress party has a few reasons to be pleased in the southern bastion, where it holds power in the states of Karnataka and Telangana and is a partner in the coalition with the DMK in the state of Tamil Nadu.

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