In east India, the fight is between BJP and the regional parties

BJP Shambhavi Chaudhary might very well be the focus of her doctoral dissertation, which examines the relationship between gender and caste in the political landscape of Bihar. The 25-year-old has the opportunity to pursue her “dream” of joining the Lok Sabha, something that neither her father nor grandpa were able to do in their respective parliamentary campaigns, as they were all defeated. She is the youngest candidate in the 2024 elections. National Democratic Alliance candidate Shambhavi, who is running for the Samastipur constituency on the Lok Janshakti Party ticket, became famous across the country after Prime Minister Narendra Modi gushed over her, describing her as the “youngest dalit, woman candidate” in India.

Shambhavi is born into affluence. A minister in Nitish Kumar’s government and a leader of the Janata Dal (United) party, Ashok Chaudhary is her father. The state’s Congress minister Mahavir Chaudhary was her grandpa. She is wed to Kunal Kishore, the son of a retired IPS officer, and she attended Delhi’s Lady Shri Ram College and Delhi School of Economics. The fact that Kishore, who came from an upper-caste family, advocated for dalit priests in temples speaks something about his character. Since Sunny Hazari, a third-generation politician from the Congress party, is Shambhavi’s primary opponent, the plot thickens. His dad, Maheshwar Hazari, is a minister in Nitish Kumar’s cabinet and is also a JD(U) member. Both of their parents served in the Lok Sabha.

Nitish Kumar, who is seeing his support and popularity dwindle, finds himself embroiled in an electoral struggle in the peaceful city of Samastipur, which is representative of Bihar’s political climate due to its arable land watered by the Ganga and the Budhi Gandak. The JD(U) and the BJP have always held sway in Samastipur, but Shambhavi is an outsider. Meanwhile, Sunny gets to use his local connections thanks to his father’s time as a member of parliament for the constituency. Nitish would have been supporting Sunny’s candidacy if he had aligned with the INDIA bloc.

No. 2150927345 At an election meeting, Narendra Modi and Shambhavi Chaudhary, an NDA candidate from Samastipur, are seen together, symbolizing a generational shift | Getty Images.

A remarkable feat has been accomplished by Nitish—he has been sworn in as chief minister nine times in the last seventeen years. He has switched sides without losing any support from his base of supporters since no other party has come out with a viable alternative to his appeal. That is, until recently. The INDIA group and the NDA have both begun to attack him, claiming that he is preventing them from becoming the state’s dominant party.

Bihar has 40 Lok Sabha seats, which puts it second in east India, behind only West Bengal with 42 MPs. With 21 seats in Odisha and 14 in Jharkhand, the area is powerful enough to affect national politics, but it has never been able to send a prime minister to Delhi.

However, eastern chief ministers have accomplished a number of things. Among the country’s longest-serving chief ministers, alongside Nitish, are Odisha’s Naveen Patnaik and West Bengal’s Mamata Banerjee. The political power structure of Jharkhand is still under the Soren family’s thumb.

Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik of Odisha and senior BJD politician V.K. Pandian discuss succession plans | Rijo Joseph

Despite the BJP’s best efforts, Modi continues to be the party’s most appealing figure in each of these states. In the next Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA is targeting a higher regional total. Within 2019, the saffron coalition managed to secure 75 out of 117 seats.

Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary confidently predicted that their party will secure all forty seats in Bihar’s assembly. His party, the BJP, has put its faith in him to win elections and perhaps become chief minister in the future. How Nitish will do in the days ahead is anyone’s guess. Taking advantage of the JD(U) is a goal of the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal.

Following the Mandal Commission’s recommendations, the Janata Dal gained popularity in the 1990s, and the Congress gradually lost ground in the region, especially in Bihar. If you want to find a state in India where socialist ideas are still talked about, go no farther than Bihar. The fact that the RJD has distributed more tickets to the Kurmi-Koeri castes than its own Yadav vote bank demonstrates that, despite all the political rhetoric and promises in the state, the caste calculus takes precedence. The Kurmis and Koeris are Nitish’s captive vote bank, and this is obviously an effort to wean them away from him.

28-Mamata Banerjee, Chief Minister of West Bengal Unyielding battle: Mamata Banerjee, chief minister of West Bengal, campaigning in Bongaon | Salil Bera

Aspirants running on the Yadav banner are making this sacrifice in the hopes of securing a victory in the upcoming assembly elections. Speaking at more than a hundred rallies thus far, former deputy chief minister Tejashwi Yadav has established himself as the foremost campaigner from the INDIA bloc. He has attempted to diversify the RJD’s traditional Muslim-Yadav vote bank by changing the focus from hindutva to employment and development.

The outcomes will be unexpected, Tejashwi assured THE WEEK. Because he injured his back while campaigning for his candidates across the state, he requires assistance getting up and walking around. Help is provided by his close associate, Sanjay Yadav, who is a member of the Rajya Sabha. The fight, according to Tejashwi, is to preserve the Constitution.

The leader of the RJD, Lalu Prasad, who has been a prominent figure in the party’s campaigns for many years thanks to his sharp tongue and biting insults, is currently recuperating at home following a kidney transplant. Lalu, who was in their Patna residence when his son spoke to THE WEEK, expressed his hope that Tejashwi will come out on top.

Even while politics in Bihar have always been in the spotlight, Odisha is making headlines as well, and Modi’s customary cordial relations with Patnaik are conspicuously missing from this situation. When the two candidates began to insult each other during the campaign, political watchers were taken aback. Despite Patnaik’s reputation as a quiet politician who has done wonders for Odisha, Modi accused him of alienating the people and said he was to blame for the state’s continued poverty. Patnaik will become India’s longest-serving chief minister in just over two months. The BJP and Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal were in early stages of alliance talks in Odisha, a state that conducts assembly and Lok Sabha elections at the same time. However, the aces dropped when the negotiations broke off.

Invoice number: PTI02_05_2024_000217B Former chief minister Hemant Soren isn’t going anywhere: he’s showing up to the Jharkhand legislature to cast a vote of confidence in the Champai Soren government (PTI)

“The Odisha people are standing by our side. The top brass of the BJD is avoiding dealing with regular people and is instead claiming that we are out to destroy their party. The lack of democracy within the party is making people demand change, according to Manmohan Samal, the state president of the BJP. The BJD maintains its connection to the people through highlighting the syncretic Jagannath tradition wrapped around the Puri temple, while the party has made Odia asmita (pride) its central slogan.

In 2019, the BJD leadership was taken aback by the BJP’s eight Lok Sabha seats in Odisha. However, Patnaik managed to hold on to his lead in the assembly’s vote. As he prepares to serve his sixth consecutive term, rumors are circulating that, with Patnaik as leader, it may be impossible to overcome the BJD. Despite his Odia heritage, Naveen babu spoke very little of the language. V.K. Pandian, his trusted advisor, is not a native Odia speaker but is fluent in the language. An individual from Bhubaneswar named Asok Sahu expressed the opinion that these matters are generally unimportant.

The BJP is taking aim at Pandian, claiming that he prevents the chief minister from meeting with others, in light of Patnaik’s continued allure. Though he hails from Tamil Nadu, Pandian served as an IAS officer in the Odisha cadre. After the chief minister, he has become the most important figure in the state since joining Patnaik in 2011.

The assembly elections were formerly the BJD’s primary concern. According to Pandian, this time was different. According to him, “double” sankha, which is the party symbol, is being discussed. Pandian is the featured speaker at three or four rallies per day as he travels around the state. Young people and women crowd his rallies, and he gladly shakes their hands and takes selfies with them. “The game-changers are women. “They are bestowing their blessings upon Naveen babu once again,” mentioned Pandian.

Winning prominent seats like Puri and Sambalpur would boost the BJP’s Lok Sabha total. The candidate from Sambalpur is Dharmendra Pradhan, who is also the Union Minister. Given that the BJD also altered its candidate and nominated party general secretary Pranab Prakash Das in response to the BJP’s choice of Pradhan to succeed the current MP, the contest is likely to be close.

Pandian challenged the BJP to announce its nominee for chief minister while Patnaik’s petition is still valid. To halt the BJP’s advance, Patnaik and Pandian must win the assembly elections by a landslide. A decisive victory might signal a change in leadership from one generation to the next and end the succession discussion within the BJD in favour of Pandian.

In comparison to the brutal fronts in West Bengal, the fighting for Odisha and Bihar on the eastern front may seem like child’s play. Once again, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is at the forefront, challenging Modi’s personal saffron challenge. Since rapes have occurred in Sandeshkhali, the already divisive political climate in the state—which has a 27% Muslim voter share—has become much more so.

With the possibility that the BJP may lose ground in Bihar, Jharkhand, and Odisha, West Bengal takes on added significance for the party. The state of Bengal also had the party’s most dramatic increase in 2019 compared to 2014, when it gained 22 percent of the vote and 16 seats. Thirty seats from the state are its objective.

Instead of forming a united front with the INDIA bloc, Mamata is going it alone. She is vigorously promoting her welfare programs, particularly those aimed at women, and is maintaining Bengali sub-nationalism as her primary platform to fight the BJP’s strong hindutva agenda.

The BJP and Mamata’s Trinamool Congress both benefit from polarization. Despite the BJP’s focus on demographics, the Trinamool has threatened to delay the Citizenship (Amendment) Act. Even after bringing up the corruption accusations against Trinamool politicians, sexual assaults on women in Sandeshkhali, and the teachers’ recruitment scandal, Modi manages to draw massive crowds. At a recent rally, Modi countered Mamata’s rhetoric by offering the people of West Bengal his five promises: Restrictions on religiously motivated reservations, changes to reservations for SC/ST/OBC members, approval of Ram Navami festivities, maintenance of the Ram Mandir, and the CAA are all off-limits. While prominent BJP figures from other states were more visible in previous elections, this time around the party has let its local leaders to spearhead the campaign.

When it comes to politics and public opinion, the four eastern states couldn’t be more different. For example, in Jharkhand, the tribal identity is very prominent. Curiously, the BJP kept secret from the Jharkhand governor the Election Commission’s opinion against former chief minister Hemant Soren, which caused them to postpone taking action against him. The ruling concerned Soren’s possible breach of election law in issuing a mining lease to himself. Had it disqualified him, he would have been stripped of his position as chief minister. On the other hand, the BJP would not have benefited politically from it.

However, the Enforcement Directorate arrested Soren earlier this year on charges of a land scam, which occurred just a few months prior to the Lok Sabha elections. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha bestowed a prominent political position upon Kalpana Soren, the wife of Hemant Soren, and appointed Champai Soren as the new chief minister. The incumbent JMM lawmaker stepped down, hence she is running for the assembly seat in Gandey. With Kalpana by his side, her husband would be better able to monitor the administration and party in the run-up to the assembly elections later this year. Hemant Soren has made it clear that she has the potential to become chief minister in his absence from politics.

In 2019, the saffron party received the greatest number of seats allotted for the Scheduled Tribes category. The BJP is eager to retain its dominance in the Lok Sabha polls in Jharkhand and is continuing to court the tribal community. The BJP won 31 of India’s 47 ST-reserved seats. With a vote percentage of over 56%, the party was victorious in 12 of Jharkhand’s 14 seats. As the BJP seeks to maintain its productive relationship with the tribals, the INDIA bloc is appealing to adivasi pride in an effort to disenchant the community from the BJP. The INDIA group has made accusations that the BJP and the NDA are considering changing the Constitution to eliminate reservation if they achieve their stated goal of 400 seats.

On the other hand, the BJP has stated categorically that they will never mess with reservation. “The reserve will be terminated, according to the opposition. According to them, we will amend the Constitution. Union Minister Arjun Munda remarked that they are trying to mislead the people by making these misleading remarks. “We cannot alter the Constitution because it is our sacred text.”

Many commentators believe that the 2019 assembly elections were lost by the BJP because they chose a chief minister who was not from the tribal community. In response, the party recalled Babulal Marandi, the state’s first chief minister, in an effort to redirect attention towards the tribal community. The outlook for the BJP in the Jharkhand assembly elections is dependent on its performance in the tribal area during the Lok Sabha elections.

The regional parties and the BJP are at odds in eastern India. Due to the saffron party’s history of shocking the regional satraps with unexpected results, they are far more watchful this time around. On June 4, when the votes are tallied, will there be other surprises? Additionally, the fate of India’s three longest-serving chief ministers is in the balance.