Is Congress seeing a revival? Direct answer in direct fights

In the Lok Sabha election held in 2024, the Congress party won 99 seats, which is over double the number of seats it got in 2019, when it won 52 seats. Are we witnessing a period of resurgence for the Congress over the entirety of India?

The answer can be found in the performance of the BJP in the absence of its allies in India and the outcomes of direct battles with the BJP.

“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be’, especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favour.” A jubilant atmosphere can be found in the Congress.

An absence of a certain kind of confidence that has been lacking in the party as of late, which has experienced both the highest number of 414 seats and the lowest number of 47 seats in the Lok Sabha. The Congress party, which has been dealt a black eye and a few fractured ribs by the BJP, was hoping for a comeback in the Lok Sabha election of 2024.

The issue at hand is not limited to a single political party; rather, it pertains to the democratic and political system that exists within the nation. The only two parties that can be considered national parties are the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress. Furthermore, the power of one of these parties is essential in order to counterbalance and check the brashness of the other party.

A total of 99 seats were gained by the Congress in the Lok Sabha election of 2024, which is nearly double the number of seats it won in 2019. It is noteworthy that dozens of seats came from places in which it joined forces with more powerful regional parties in order to compete in the elections. The question now is, do the results indicate a rebirth of Congress?

A Congress-mukt Bharat was being discussed by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which was also announcing that the party had been eliminated. According to Rasheed Kidwai, an author and political pundit, the results of the Lok Sabha election demonstrate that the party is still very much working.

It is possible that the Congress was battling from a position of inferiority, which is the reason for the party’s sense of pride. It was the first time in the history of the Congress that a general election was held with fewer than 330 candidates running for elective office. To bring the BJP to its knees, it made sacrifices for the sake of its partners in India.

It is clear from the calculations that there has been a resurgence of Congress; nonetheless, revival is an ongoing process. In an interview with India Today, political expert Amitabh Tiwari believes that the answer might be found somewhere in the middle.I am.

“It is easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor,” Tyrion Lannister, who is portrayed by Peter Dinklage, cautioned. Therefore, it is of the utmost importance to acknowledge that the answer lies somewhere in the middle.

CONGRESS HAS WON 99 SEATS, SO WHY THE DOUBT?

Given that the numbers point to the success of the Congress in the Lok Sabha election of 2024, it is difficult to see why there is even the slightest possibility of expressing uncertainty.

“People are thinking it is the moment of revival for the Congress, but that is not true,” political analyst Prashant Kishor said in his first interview following the general election. Kishor was speaking through India Today TV.

Using the example of Karnataka, Telangana, and Himachal Pradesh, which are three states in which the Congress party is now in power, Prashant Kishor provided an illustration.

In the state of Karnataka, the Congress party has suffered a defeat. According to Kishor, also known as PK, the party has been beaten in all of the seats in Himachal Pradesh. A few months ago, they were able to sweep Telangana, but in that state, they only obtained fifty percent of the seats in the general election.

It is his assertion that the Congress party has been able to achieve commendable results in the states of Rajasthan and Maharashtra.

There were eight seats that were taken away from the saffron party by the Congress party in the state of Rajasthan, where the BJP had won both of the most recent elections with a perfect score. Five seats were gained by the Congress party even in the state of Haryana.

As stated by Rasheed Kidwai, who has written a number of books about the Congress, one of which is titled 24 Akbar Road, the results in Haryana and Rajasthan indicate that the OBCs, Muslims, and Dalits have begun voting for the company once more.

A noteworthy example of a comeback for the Congress party is the state of Maharashtra. According to Kidwai, the party was ranked third all the while, but it has since risen to the first spot.

On the other hand, Prashant Kishor contends that these dispersed performances do not demonstrate a revival covering the all of India. “If it would have been a pan-India revival of the Congress, the party would have done better in its strongholds,” he said in response.

It is vital to have a look at the direct match-ups with the BJP in order to get a fair understanding of whether or not this is the rebirth movement of the Congress.

WHAT DO CONGRESS-BJP DIRECT ELECTION FIGHTS SUGGEST?

Among other reasons, political analyst Amitabh Tiwari believes that the answer to the question of whether or not this is the time for the Grand Old Party to experience a resurrection can be found in a comparison of direct fights between the BJP and the Congress.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress Party (Congress) were directly competing for 190 seats in the Lok Sabha election that took place in 2019. According to Amitabh Tiwari, the BJP was able to secure 175 seats, while the Congress garnered only 15 seats.

The BJP has a striking rate of 92%, while the Congress has a strike rate of 8%, which is a very low percentage.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress had a direct campaign for 215 seats in the Lok Sabha election holding in 2024. 153 seats were won by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while the Congress Party (Congress) raised their number of seats to 62, up from just 15 in 2019.

In the direct contests that took place in 2024, the striking rate for the BJP was at 70%, while the strike rate for the Congress showed a significant increase, going from 8% to 30%.

The most important thing is that the Congress party was able to win 47 additional seats in direct contests against the BJP this time. This is the same number of seats that the party has added to its total as compared to the election that took place in 2019 (99-52).

In direct conflicts with the BJP, the Congress party has been able to achieve a net gain. For the Congress, this is a significant boost to their morale, according to Tiwari.

The gains that Tiwari is taking into account, on the other hand, come from states in which the Congress was in coalition with other regional parties in India, such as the Samajwadi Party (in Uttar Pradesh), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (in Bihar), and the Shiv Sena, which is led by Uddhav Thackeray, and Sharad Pawar’s National Coalition Party (in Maharashtra).

Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Tamil Nadu were the four states in which the Congress party competed with backing from its allies in India. These four states contributed 31 of the 99 seats that the Congress party won in the Lok Sabha election in 2024.

Maharashtra, according to Tiwari, is not just due to the presence of allies. The Congress party was able to win the elections in Marathwada and Vidarbha on its own.

DOES THE CONGRESS HAVE ORGANISATIONAL STRENGTH?

The calculations demonstrate how the Congress party was able to take 47 seats away from the BJP through direct contests. The question is, however, if this is due to the strength of its organization or to local concerns such as the fury of the Rajputs and the RSS’s decision to take a hands-off attitude towards the BJP in certain states this time?

The question is relevant since the strength of the organization is of the utmost importance for determining whether or not a revival will be sustained. A number of knowledgeable individuals are of the opinion that the organizational structure of the Congress on the ground is in a state of disarray.

Amitabh Tiwari responds to this by pointing out that the Congress party was able to steal seats from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in four states: Karnataka, Rajasthan, Haryana, and even one seat in each of the states of Chhattisgarh and Gujarat.

There is a direct conflict between the Congress and the BJP, and the Congress possesses organizational capabilities in certain areas. According to Tiwari, the fact that it received forty percent of the vote in states such as Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh demonstrates that it has booth-level power in those states.

On the ground, the Congress is weak in states where there is a direct struggle between the BJP and regional parties. This is the case in states where the BJP is the incumbent party. The states of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Odisha, and Jharkhand each have approximately 180 seats up for election.

TIME TO REJOICE BUT TIME FOR INTROSPECTION TOO

Due to the fact that the Congress party won ‘400 paar’ seats in the wave election that took place in 1984, following the assassination of Indira Gandhi, the Congress party’s total has only decreased.

The total of 99 is lower than the number of seats obtained by the Congress in the 1989 election, when they were defeated and only picked up 197 members.

After the elections in 2014 and 2019, this is the third-worst performance that Congress has ever experienced in its entire history. During the period of Indira Gandhi, when Congress was struggling, it managed to win 154 seats. On the other hand, 99 or 101–102 seats do not indicate a significant resurgence. It is simply demonstrating that the Congress does, in fact, have a shot,” Prashant Kishor said in an interview with India Today TV.

Despite having gained 240 seats, which is more than all of the INDIA partners together, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is currently analyzing their decline. In the midst of its celebrations, the Congress must also engage in introspection because, as the saying goes, “It is easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be’.”

Rasheed Kidwai, an author and pundit, believes that the Congress party’s efforts in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal, and Delhi need to be significantly increased.

“Somewhere it is a problem of local leadership, in other places it is the issues,” he explains further.

All of India’s major parties, including the Janata Party and the Left parties, have experienced significant reductions in recent years. On the other hand, it appears that Congress is poised to make a comeback in this particular instance.

“What is heartwarming for the Congress is that its messages are gaining traction in rural areas,” according to Kidwai.

Despite the fact that the Congress party is currently in the opposition, Rasheed Kidwai believes that this is irrelevant. “The Congress was in the opposition earlier too, but now its confidence has been renewed,” according to his statement.

“That the Congress has snatched seats from the BJP in direct contests is the biggest story of this election,” according to Amitabh Tiwari, who further states, “The idea of the BJP’s invincibility in direct contests with the Congress has been shattered.”

The direct fight numbers indicate that the Congress is capable of challenging the BJP in a number of states; however, the Congress is not yet having a resurgence over the entirety of India.

There is a possibility that it may see a resurrection, and the three states of Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Haryana, which are scheduled to hold elections in the near future, will serve as the litmus test.