Rahul Gandhi’s political chess, swinging between Wayanad and Rae Bareli, puts Congress in a problem in Kerala.

Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the Congress party, is now running for the second seat in the Lok Sabha elections that will take place in 2024. Rae Bareli, which is located in Uttar Pradesh and is considered to be another bastion of the party, is this candidate’s place of residence. There is a possibility that he has positioned himself to be in opposition to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Hindi heartland. On the other hand, if he were to win both seats, including the one in Wayanad, where he is fighting for re-election, it may put the Congress party in a precarious position in the state of Kerala.

If Mr. Gandhi were to relinquish his seat in Wayanad, many leaders within the Congress party believe that this would have a substantial impact on the prospects of the Congress party in the elections for the Kerala Assembly in 2026. These elections are scheduled to take place in the district of Kerala.

Furthermore, in the event that a by-election is held in the Wayanad constituency, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) is likely to increase its demand for a third seat. This is because the IUML represents the Muslim community in India. This is because the party has been arguing that Mr. Gandhi’s most loyal followers come from the Indian Union of Malayalam (IUML) in the seat, which is comprised of three Assembly constituencies in the Wayanad district, three Assembly segments in Malappuram, and one Assembly segment in Kozhikode. Additionally, the upcoming vacancy of a winnable Rajya Sabha seat in the month of July is another element that is putting a significant amount of pressure on the shoulders of the leadership of the Congress party.

Objections from those on the Left
While Congress functionaries painstakingly attempted to justify the political move by stating that Mr. Gandhi’s candidature in Rae Bareli was to strengthen the INDIA bloc and that his presence was required in north India, CPI leader Annie Raja, who is the Left front’s candidate from Wayanad, criticised the decision as a “betrayal” of the people of the hill constituency. Raja is the candidate for the Left front. For the Left front, Raja is the candidate to be elected.

Rahul Gandhi

The Central leadership of the BJP, which includes Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Kerala’s State President K. Surendran, who is the candidate for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) from Wayanad, mocked the narrative by claiming that Mr. Gandhi’s decision was motivated by “fear.” This was in response to the fact that he had lost Amethi, a constituency that he had won three times in a row (2004, 2009, and 2014) to Smriti Irani of the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections in 2019.Many leaders of the Congress party were of the belief that the optics would have been different if Mr. Gandhi had chosen to create an image of a fighter rather than going for a safe seat in Uttar Pradesh during the third electoral confrontation with Ms. Irani, which took place in Amethi. This confrontation took place in Amethi. They believe that his sister, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, would have been a more suitable candidate for the Rae Bareli seat, which had been held by their mother, Sonia Gandhi, for a significant amount of time. Others are of the opinion that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra would have been a better ideal candidate

Variations in the dynamics of the political system
As a result of the fact that the Congress party does not hold any of the five Assembly seats in the Lok Sabha constituency, Rae Bareli cannot be considered a safe seat for Mr. Gandhi. This is the case despite the fact that the Congress party has a long history of electoral success in the region. There are four members of the Samajwadi Party (SP), and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) were victorious in the Rae Bareli section of the election. Furthermore, ever since Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath took over the government of Uttar Pradesh in the year 2017, there has been a substantial paradigm shift in the political dynamics of the state.

An unsuccessful mandate in the tight-rope walk in Rae Bareli would not force Mr. Gandhi to face a dilemma because the Congress party is confident about his victory from Wayanad, albeit with a smaller margin of victory compared to the victory margin of 4.31 lakh votes he secured in the 2019 elections. This is because the Congress party is confident that Mr. Gandhi will win from Wayanad. To put it another way, Mr. Gandhi would not be required to deal with a predicament.Mr. Gandhi, on the other hand, was suggested to run for a parliamentary seat from the state of Uttar Pradesh by A.K. Antony, an experienced Congress leader. Antony was the one who submitted the proposal. According to statements made by K. Sudhakaran, the president of the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC), the party would make a decision that is suitable once the results of the election have been declared.

In light of the fact that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was making a concerted effort to undermine the candidature of the husband-wife team of Akhilesh Yadav and Dimple Yadav, who were running for the State Party (SP) in Kannauj and Mainpuri, respectively, Ms. Vadra’s campaign would have been far more difficult if she had run from Rae Bareli. Due to the fact that Ms. Gandhi had already been elected to the Rajya Sabha, the attack that the Modi-Yogi combine would have launched against the Congress party, which is nominally controlled by a dynasty, would have been more intense.

 

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