India election: PM Narendra Modi may break new ground as exit polls forecast a ‘historic’ victory

Rising living costs and unemployment were important themes in the election, but the unhappiness did not appear to have harmed Modi’s image.
If Modi wins a third term, he will equal Jawaharlal Nehru’s three-term record as prime minister, who led the country from 1947 to 1964.
Narendra Modi appears to be on track for a record third term as India’s prime minister, with exit polls forecasting a resounding victory for his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), highlighting his continued popularity despite the country’s economic woes.
According to most television exit polls, the ruling National Democratic party, a right-wing conservative Indian political party led by the BJP, is expected to secure a two-thirds majority in the lower house of parliament after the country’s general election on Saturday.

The election commission will announce the official vote tally on Tuesday.

Opposition parties have claimed that India’s major news outlets were skewed against the BJP, with Rahul Gandhi, the head of the main opposition Indian National Congress party, calling exit polls “a fantasy.” The outlets have refuted the charges.
While observers had pointed out a number of economic challenges that could prevent the BJP from winning a historic third term, analysts said the prime minister’s enormous appeal appeared to trump other worries.
“Modi’s popularity has emerged as the biggest theme, despite issues like unemployment and inflation,” said Yashwant Deshmukh, an independent political commentator and founder of C-Voter.

“People expect Modi to be a better solution provider than Rahul Gandhi or any other opposition leader,” he stated. “There is a definite expectation about India’s growth story in terms of the economy that has helped.”

If Modi wins a third term, he will equal Jawaharlal Nehru’s three-term record as prime minister, who led the country from 1947 to 1964.

Rising living costs and unemployment emerged as major issues in the election, but the unhappiness did not appear to harm Modi’s reputation.
“With the opposition running its strongest campaign since 2014, independent media on YouTube gaining popularity, and unemployment remaining a major concern for voters, the opposition could have reasonably expected to perform well,” said Pratik Dattani, founder of London-based think tank Bridge India.
However, it appears that displeasure with the government has not turned into the anger required for voters to change their ballots.

“This was a referendum on Modi.” So perhaps people punished the opposition’s lack of a prime ministerial candidate by perceiving Modi as the greatest choice for prime minister,” Dattani suggested.

After ten years of BJP administration, the party was expected to exhibit anti-incumbency bias. While such emotions were widespread among parliamentarians, Deshmukh believes the BJP won by relying on Modi.

“People are hugely disappointed with sitting MPs, even with the BJP MPs, but for the sake of Modi they have voted them back,” he stated.
Exit polls showed that the BJP has made substantial advances into southern and eastern India, expanding its power beyond its traditional Hindi-speaking heartlands in north, central, and western India.

“If the exit polls prediction is correct, it means that the BJP will emerge as a national party, no longer limited to the Hindi heartland,” said Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, an independent political expert.

“It could also mean a great endorsement across the country for the idea of Hindutva (Hindu nation).”

According to exit polls, the BJP is expected to gain ground not only in Karnataka, where it is the strongest in the southern region, but also in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.

According to Deshmukh, the BJP’s vote share is also projected to rise in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which were previously almost uncrackable for the party.

Deshmukh noted that in the eastern state of West Bengal, the BJP appears to be neck and neck with the influential Trinamool Congress regional party.

Modi’s legacy

It could be Modi’s final term in office, as he was previously a pariah in the western world due to religious riots that happened while he was Gujarat’s chief minister in 2002, killing 1,000-2,000 people, most of them Muslims.

However, as India’s economy grows, the country is rapidly being recognized as a geopolitical counterbalance to China.

Opposition leaders have warned that another term for Modi might seriously harm India’s secular and democratic traditions, claiming that the BJP’s Hindu nationalist agenda has split the country.

“Another term for Modi would lead India away from democracy. “Modi is battling the principles on which India was founded in 1947,” said Kingshuk Nag, an author and independent political pundit, adding that Modi’s hold on power is only likely to strengthen if he is re-elected.

Observers expect major firms to benefit from a BJP victory, but they predict industrial development will favor areas like Gujarat and Maharashtra, where the ruling party is more popular, over others like West Bengal.

Stock market analysts are similarly enthusiastic about India’s development prospects if Modi comes to power, anticipating a push for reforms to improve infrastructure and increase manufacturing growth.
“This government has finally realized that manufacturing as a share of GDP needs to increase. They have seen that in how China has performed over the last 30-40 years,” said Shekhar Sambhashivan, India equities investment director at investment management firm Invesco.

“While the government says it wants it to be closer to about a quarter, even if we assume on a conservative basis, they would land up at 20 per cent of GDP,” he stated.

The BJP has stated that it wants India to be fully developed by 2047, its 100th year of independence from British colonial rule. It also aims to grow the world’s fifth-largest economy by eight times to US$29 trillion by then, as well as boost per capita income by seven times to roughly US$18,000.

That concept appears to have appealed to certain members of India’s burgeoning middle class and impoverished.

If Modi wins a third term, he would leave an indelible legacy, according to Mukhopadhyay.

“This would be unprecedented. Nehru benefited from the legacy of the national struggle against British rule in his election campaign. In comparison, Modi has survived the opposition without leaving such a legacy.

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